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iShares MSCI Mexico ETF

EWW tracks a market-cap-weighted index of Mexican firms.

Evaluating the iShares MSCI Mexico ETF as a potential investment, focusing on its objective to track Mexican equities. Reflecting on the poor performance, I downgrade EWW to "Hold" due to missed growth expectations and market underperformance. The potential for steep tariffs, a declining peso, and weak M&A activity in-country all suggest to me that being bullish here is too optimistic.

EWW: Buying Mexican Equities Was A Mistake I Made In 2024 (Rating Downgrade)

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Shanghai CSI 300 has gone from a 52-week low to a 52-week high in only a couple of weeks. Other than China and Hong Kong, Australia is the only other international market starting the week at a 52-week high.

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Political risk in Mexico has been exacerbated by the dominance of the Morena Party control and controversial constitutional reforms. Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Mexico is declining. Drug cartel violence and organized crime intrusion into the normal economy is disruptive to supply chains and public safety.

Remaining Cautious On Mexico And iShares MSCI Mexico ETF

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US equities have outperformed the rest of the world for a long time now. While the US is up 58% on a total return basis during the current bull market, the rest of the world is up 13.5 percentage points less at +44.5%. Looking at the international dividend ETF over a longer time frame, over the last five years, it's up 20.6% in price and more than double that on a total return basis.

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Downgraded from Buy to Sell due to further political risks from constitutional "reform" and a potential second Trump term. The Mexican market has seen a 10% weaker Peso and a 15% decline in the EWW during political uncertainty that can persist in the next 5 months. EWW's valuation appears cheap post-sell-off at 11x PE, but analysts' downgrades are likely on weaker FX and increased country risk as we head into the 2Q24 earnings.

EWW: Reduce On Political Risk

Claudia Sheinbaum secured over 60% of the vote. The scale of the victory rattled markets as investors worry about sweeping reforms. Election sell-offs are often a buying opportunity.

EWW: Mexican Election Sell Off An Overreaction

Equities here in the US have gotten off to a weak start this month, with the S&P 500 down modestly over the past couple of sessions. The US-traded ETF that tracks Mexican stocks is down 8.3% month-to-date and 12.3% year-to-date.

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Exchange-traded funds that track Mexican equities were on track to suffer their biggest daily decline in nearly four years on Monday, after Claudia Sheinbaum's victory in Mexico's presidential election sparked investor concerns that her party's landslide win could lead to constitutional changes.

Mexico ETFs face worst day in 4 years after ruling party's election win spooks investors

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The Mexican opportunity set is diverse, and the iShares MSCI Mexico ETF is a low-cost option to gain exposure. EWW is well-diversified across large and mid-cap segments, as well as sectors, with a strong performance on a trailing 1-year basis. Key risks remain, including higher volatility than a standard EM allocation, and a US election where US/Mexico relations are likely to be front and center, the fund remains attractive, however.

EWW: No Wall Of Worry Here, Mexico ETF Still Looking Up

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China and Hong Kong markets had a humbling 2023 with equities down more than 10%. Beijing has also begun stepping up tourism and travel promotions, granting visa-free entry to 11 countries, with Singapore and Thailand the latest to be included.

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The iShares MSCI Mexico ETF is a good way to gain exposure to the Mexican market, with potential upside and strong corporate earnings growth. The nearshoring phenomena should add more than 1% to structural GDP growth that drives industrial production and consumer demand. The start of an easing cycle from 11% to 9% should also add fuel to equity valuations.

EWW: The Momentum Continues

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Although the S&P 500 has offered a sturdy performance this year, a few country ETFs have beaten the S&P 500 this year.

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EWW provides exposure to Mexican majors, but we worry about the impact of minimum wage increases on earnings of Mexican corporates. Consumer staples and financials are attractive due to economic resilience and potential benefits from higher interest rates. However, the substantial minimum wage increase that affects 33% of the workforce is possibly a major earnings headwind, especially with global recessions still on the table. Pass on EWW.

EWW: Change In Minimum Wage A Threat To Mexican Corporates

Latin American stocks have performed well in 2023, with ETFs from Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico outperforming the S&P 500. The iShares MSCI Mexico ETF is recommended as a buy, with value still seen in the south-of-the-border portfolio. EWW has a concentrated portfolio and high exposure to consumer staples, but its low valuation and strong momentum make it an attractive investment.

EWW: Mexican Stocks Rebound In 2023, Remain Inexpensive

iShares MSCI Mexico ETF is facing potential volatility due to Mexico's interest rate roadmap and the vehicle's weighting structure. Mexico's sluggish growth and reliance on foreign trade may hinder the ETF's performance. The EWW ETF has concentration risk, underwhelming price multiples, and is exposed to elevated risk premiums.

EWW: 'Higher For Longer' Interest Rates Could Inflict Damage

EWW has performed well due to resilient exposures and a strong Mexican Peso. The ETF has significant exposure to consumer staples and financials, which have matched inflation rates or benefited from higher interest rates. The Mexican economy's lack of leverage and capacity for hawkishness make it less vulnerable to the negatives of higher rates.

EWW: Resilient With Continued MXP Uplift

Mexico has been well established as a center of integrated manufacturing supply chains, particularly around assembly, for the North American market. Mexico has managed to avoid many US tariffs, and its share of US imports of semi-articulated truck trailers increased to 87.2% in the 12 months to May 31, 2023, from 70.5% in 2016.

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The market discount sees a Mexican central bank rate cut from November. We agree, and we in fact can see rates being cut faster than the market discounts thereafter.

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News for iShares MSCI Mexico ETF ETF (EWW)