Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF

EDV tracks a market-value-weighted index of high-duration, zero-coupon US Treasury securities.

The fund tracks a market value-weighted index of high-duration, zero-coupon US Treasury securities.

Long-term interest rates are expected to rise further, leading to a continued decline in bond funds and ETFs like EDV. We set a price target of $64 for EDV, anticipating long-term treasury bond rates to reach approximately 4.75% by February. Our forecast is based on extreme bullish sentiment among bond market newsletter writers, which historically signals a bearish outlook for bonds.

EDV: Long Term Interest Rates Should Continue Higher

Despite a 50 bp Fed rate cut, long-duration US Treasury yields rose as investors kept calibrating their expectations from the Fed and the US economy. EDV ETF remains a solid recession hedge that benefits from rate cuts. Even though we observe heightened market volatility, I maintain my "Buy" rating for the EDV ETF.

EDV: Another Great Opportunity To Buy

Vanguard Long-Term Bond ETF

Long-term bonds could become far more valuable if rates fall. There are two excellent Vanguard ETFs that focus on long-term bonds.

2 Fixed-Income ETFs to Consider Before the Fed Cuts Rates

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The ECB cut rates by 25bp as widely anticipated, but a slightly hawkish tilt bear flattened the EUR curve, which in our view remains priced aggressively. In the US, as the markets head towards the Fed's first rate cut, the probability of a larger cut rose slightly on Thursday.

Rates Spark: ECB Presser Bear-Flattened The Curve

Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value ETF

The Federal Reserve is expected to make its first rate cut since 2020 later this month. The rate cut should make it easier for smaller companies to borrow and grow their bottom lines.

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BondBloxx Bloomberg Twenty Year Target Duration US Treasury ETF

Treasuries are poised for their longest monthly winning streak in three years on September rate cut bets.

ETFs Soaring on Treasuries' Longest Winning Streak in 3 Years

The recent equity rout has led investors to seek refuge in Treasury securities, perceived as safe-haven assets.

Treasury ETFs Gaining on Slowdown Concerns, Rate Cut Bets

The EDV rallied in the last few weeks amid growing fears over the US economy outlook. I expect that the US economy may continue to slow down in the upcoming months, but I don't anticipate an immediate recession. I stay bullish on the EDV ETF, though it's better for investors to buy on pullbacks before we have more economic data on hand for a clear picture.

EDV: A Bumpy Road Ahead

The EDV ETF showed negative returns since my last article about the ETF. Nonetheless, I reiterate my Buy rating. It may take some time for a long-duration bond trade to fully unveil, so investors should stay patient.

EDV: The U.S. Economy Seems To Weaken - Reiterating Buy

Zero coupon treasury bonds are considered to be a better way to benefit from rate cuts in the US compared to ordinary treasury bonds. While the bond market is getting repriced for a "higher for longer" scenario, I expect interest rate cuts sooner rather than later. Both ZROZ and EDV are fine if you expect interest rate cuts in the foreseeable future, though one of these two ETFs is slightly better.

ZROZ Vs. EDV: Which Zero Coupon Treasury ETF Is Better?

As the non-farm payrolls data gets revised downwards once again, it's a relevant question how robust the US economy actually is. History shows that deterioration of the economic situation may happen way faster than it seems. If you're looking for a way to shield your portfolio from a recession, then the EDV ETF may serve as a solid option.

EDV: A Great ETF To Hedge Your Portfolio Against A Recession

Capital markets pondering when and how fast rate cuts come may invoke anxiety in fixed income investors expecting yields to fall. If they're willing to extend their exposure to higher duration, they can attain the higher yields they seek.

Extend Duration and Get Higher Yield With This ETF

It generally takes a few years for changes in Federal Reserve rates to fully impact bond fund dividends. Bond funds are still benefitting from prior rate hikes. Perhaps by enough to cancel out any future rate cuts. By my estimations, and under current Fed guidance, most bond funds would only start to see declining dividends in 2025, at the earliest.

Estimating The Impact Of Lower Rates On Bond Fund Dividends

Vanguard Russell 2000 Value ETF

Vanguard's most popular funds track headline indexes such as the S&P 500 and Russell 2000. However, Vanguard has a total of 84 index funds in its product portfolio.

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Interest rates are at their highest level in years, and this has created some excellent yields from fixed-income investments. Since price and yield have an inverse relationship, bond prices could rise significantly as interest rates fall.

3 Vanguard Fixed-Income ETFs to Buy Before Rates Start to Fall

Federal Reserve officials believe that interest rates have hit their peak and will be reduced later this year. That said, Fed policymakers expect rates to remain at high “for some time,” according to minutes from its December meeting.

Go Long On Treasury ETFs as Interest Rates Hit Their Peak

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The U.S. market is in great shape as 2023 comes to a close, thanks mainly to a less-hawkish Fed, an Artificial Intelligence (AI) boom and dissipating global growth worries. This is how you can navigate the record high market.

How to Trade With ETFs & Win in a Record-High Market?

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Active ETFs are gaining traction. But advisors control the lion's share of institutional assets for now.

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We continue to recommended allocating 30% of portfolios to long-term treasury bonds based on surveys of bond newsletter writers and clear price patterns. EDV has gained double the S&P 500 since the October recommendation, prompting inquiries about selling, but surveys still point to higher bond prices. The completion of three distinct selling waves in the bond bear market gives confidence to continue to hold EDV, extending the price target to $90.

Don't Sell Those Long-Term Treasuries

Inflation isn't at the 2% level the Fed has been targeting. But it's gone down considerably from its peak of 9% last year.

Consider Vanguard's Treasury ETFs as Government Bonds Rally

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Hello! In this week's ETF Wrap, you'll get a look at flow data showing recent “bullish buying behavior” from investors, as well as funds to consider before 2024 hits.

ETF investors flee cash-like government bond funds, favor riskier assets in ‘bullish buying'

The world's largest bond market made a remarkable recovery in November after experiencing difficulties earlier in 2023. It is now on track for its best month since March.

Treasury ETFs on Track for Best Month Since March

A key indicator based on surveys of newsletter writers suggests the end of the bear market in bonds is just around the corner. But the transition from a bear to a bull market may not be simple.

A Key Indicator Suggests The 3-Year Bear Market In Bonds Is Coming To An End

Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury Index Fund ETF has lost half its value since early 2020 due to rising inflation and a positive stock-bond correlation, as I expected then. EDV's losses have accelerated this year with the yield curve's abnormally steepening pattern. The rise in the long end of the yield curve and the potential for an inflationary recession are vital factors affecting EDV's performance.

EDV: Pricing-In Long-Term Inflation Of 3-4%, Lowering Downside Risk (Rating Upgrade)

The Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF holds 20- to 30-year Treasury STRIPS which have an extremely high duration. After a major decline, the EDV now yields 4.7%, and with tight monetary policy beginning to undermine equity markets, it is time to lock in these high yields. Falling risk assets could trigger a flight to liquidity, driving down inflation expectations and real bond yields, leading to a surge in the EDV.

EDV: The Case For Long Duration Bonds Is Strengthening Despite Surging Supply (Rating Upgrade)

News for Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF ETF (EDV)